Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Rates DOWN. Confidence UP.

Jeff Brown wrote a brilliant piece on Bloodhoundblog yesterday. Read it all - and the comments as well. This kind of thinking is the reason I read blogs, especially BHB. Key graphs:

I can’t find a two week period in the last 40 years where the Fed has increased money supply by over $110Billion — can’t find it. That doesn’t mean it hasn’t happened, but you have to agree, that’s a monster increase in our money supply. (That’s M2 for the econo-nerds.)

This move will, (I theorize) spur the stock market — and please believe me, I don’t say this lightly — to heights we haven’t dreamed of. That kind of added liquidity in this set of circumstances relegates whatever Bernanke chooses to do with interest rates tomorrow — anticlimactic. The only argument that makes rate cuts more likely than not, is the absolute requirement of — confidence.


Confidence? No kidding: DOW up 336, 2.51%. Investors were tickled to death with the half point cut in the federal funds and discount rates. Sure, one day does not a rally make, but the drop in the DOW a few weeks ago when the sub-prime problems were fully felt foretold nothing but gloom, so I’m going to exercise prerogative and give tickled where tickled is due.

What’s this mean for the housing market, particularly the housing market in the Pacific Northwest? It should help ease the coming interest resets for adjustable rate mortgages. Whether or not it will affect mortgage interest rates is questionable; there’s no direct correlation. That said, the thirty year fixed dipped below 6% for a time last week, and jumbo mortgages (+$417k) are starting to settle.

As I’ve argued before the fundamentals remain strong.

So what’s the real effect? Perhaps, as for the stock market, this is a catalyst for the one thing this housing market has lacked:

Confidence.

8 comments:

Jeff Brown said...

Jeff - Thanks so much. It's always way cool when someone besides Mom thinks you're smart. :)

I love what you've said about fundamentals having remained solid through all of this.

Phoenix is another example of that. Greg Swann sent me a link a few days ago (bizjournal.com) which showed Phoenix still the #1 jobs city in the country. Wow.

Thanks again, Jeff.

Jeff Kempe said...

Thank YOU, Jeff. Great stuff. Any friend of John Galt is a friend of mine...

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